Decidedly earthy news (“Moscow has moved reserves of blood and medical supplies as well as increased troop movement to the Ukrainian border”) continues to trickle in from US military sources, confirming Vladimir Putin’s likely willingness to launch soon a non-invasive invasion. it is known if and how limited from Ukraine. Not only that: Yesterday an anti-tank grenade fired by pro-Russian separatists in Lugansk province injured a Ukrainian soldier, a reminder of how easy it can be to light the fuse of conflict. In Kiev, President Volodymyr Zelensky calls for the withdrawal of the Russians and continues on the one hand to encourage the influx of military and economic aid from the West, and on the other hand to insist with the same countries which support him that are not exaggerating by fueling the psychosis of an imminent war within Ukrainian public opinion. It is really a difficult job for the Ukrainian leader, aware that panic would be one of the best weapons in the hands of the Russian invader, but also that reducing the alarm signals is only the game of the Kremlin , whose propaganda claims that in this crisis, the real warmongers would be the West (even if NATO repeats that it does not have Ukraine’s membership on its agenda and in no way wants case send troops there).
A similar apparent contradiction can be seen on the Western Front itself. Each for their own domestic political reasons, Britain and France (the two main European military powers) are jostling to lead NATO’s response to Russian threats against Eastern partners: Boris Johnson promises to mobilize forces and armaments to be allocated to the East to make people forget the big international internal problems, Emmanuel Macron does not miss the opportunity to remind the world that at the moment the EU is led by Paris, it is that is to say by him (at least until the next elections in April): he thus simultaneously manages diplomatic contacts with Putin and the dispatch of a French military contingent to support Romania.
On the other side is Germany, whose Chancellor Olaf Scholz will see Biden on February 7 for proper clarification. Berlin is not conspicuous by its consistency: on the one hand, to please Putin, it tries to block the sending of NATO artillery pieces to Ukraine by claiming that they were originally German (to be exact the defunct GDR), from another promises to stop in retaliation in the event of an invasion also under the pretext of the continuous postponement of the OK to the official certification necessary to start it – the Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, a vital source of energy not only for heating homes, but also for the operation of German factories.
But the most interesting front remains the Russian-American one. Yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted on getting ‘equal relations for mutual benefit’ from Biden (an ambiguous way of reiterating the claim that the US recognizes an anti-historic zone of influence in Europe). But just as the US Senate prepares to approve ‘the mother of all Moscow sanctions’, former President Donald Trump at a rally in Texas returns to play Putin’s favorite music: Biden will lead us to a world war, should not send troops to Europe but to the border with Mexico to stop the immigrants. In so much confusion, one certainty: Moscow would very much like a return of the isolationist Trump to the White House.